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For the second consecutive Thursday, the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will hit the field. This time, they’re facing each other on Thursday Night Football at Gillette Stadium.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo won both meetings last year by double digits, but this year’s matchups are expected to be tighter. The Patriots are slight underdogs at home, as receiving threats like Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry aim to keep them close against the Super Bowl favourites.
Here are our Bills vs. Patriots Week 13 prop picks for Thursday Night Football on December 1.
Odds as of 3:12 p.m. on 11/30/2022.
Bills vs. Patriots Week 13 prop picks
Best Bet : Meyers over 49.5 receiving yards (-117)
In the early portion of this season, fading Buffalo’s opponents in the passing game was the wise move. The Bills allowed fewer than 200 passing yards to each of their first four opponents, which included meetings against Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson.
As the season has progressed, though, teams have been able to attack the Bills through the air more easily. And that’s why we’re backing Meyers on his receiving yardage prop.
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Meyers has 50-plus receiving yards in seven of nine games. That includes three catches for 62 yards last week, despite the fact he missed some of the game due to injury.
The fourth-year receiver has also missed two full games, but he’s still the top target among New England receivers by a long shot — Meyers has 62 targets, and the next-highest WR is DeVante Parker (34).
Four of the Bills’ past seven opponents have topped 300 passing yards, and they rank 15th in Football Outsiders‘ pass defence DVOA in that span. In other words, they’ve been average defending through the air.
Pairing that trend with Meyers’ solid season-long volume, we’ll happily back New England’s top receiver on a modest yardage prop.
Key stat: Meyers is averaging 63.4 receiving yards per game this season.
Quick picks
Henry over 25.5 receiving yards (-112): Despite having a would-be touchdown controversially called back last week, Henry still enjoyed a season-high 63 yards on five targets.
This week’s matchup feels like a good opportunity to build on that success, as the Bills allow 46.7 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, according to Football Outsiders.
Five of the Bills’ past seven opponents have had a tight end surpass this number.
Singletary under 51.5 rushing yards (-117): Devin Singletary rushed for an efficient 72 yards on 14 carries in Detroit last week, but we aren’t banking on a repeat performance.
New England allows the 10th-fewest yards per attempt (4.2) and the ninth-fewest rush yards per game (109.3) to opponents. If someone is going to have a day on the ground for Buffalo, it’s always more likely to be Josh Allen than one of the running backs.
Singletary has fewer than 50 rushing yards in seven of his 11 games this season.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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