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Partner Content | Best NBA prop picks November 29: Count on a big day from Simons

There are only three games on the NBA schedule on Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean there’s a shortage of appealing prop-betting options.

The pregame narrative: Injuries to both the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers should allow Anfernee Simons to shine. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson has been scoring at a solid clip lately and facing a soft defence could drive up Jalen Brunson’s assist total.

Find all our best NBA props picks for November 29 below.

Odds as of 9:52 a.m. ET on 11/29/2022.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet: Anfernee Simons over 23.5 points (+100)

This is undoubtedly an ambitious line, even for a talented scorer like Simons, but there are mitigating circumstances that make it likely that he’ll clear it.

Most importantly, Damian Lillard is out making Simons the focal point of the Portland Trail Blazers’ offence. Simons has played seven games without Lillard this season, and his scoring load has increased by a notable margin in those contests.

Split Games Points/Game Shots/Game
With Lillard 11 21.0 18.0
Without Lillard 7 26.6 19.6

When Simons is his team’s top on-ball guard it leads to him looking for his shot more as the 23-year-old is a shoot-first player who’s averaged just 2.2 assists per game in his career.

In most situations, the top offensive threat facing the Clippers is in for a long day, but on Tuesday both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are out. Without their elite duo of stoppers, Los Angeles’ defence is more ordinary than elite.

Simons is likely to see plenty of Reggie Jackson, Terance Mann and Norm Powell in this matchup. Each of those players is solid in their own right, but only Mann could be described as a plus defender.

None of them are likely to slow down one of the best young scorers in the game.

Key stat: Simons has hit this over in four of the seven games that he’s played without Lillard this season.

Quick picks

Thompson over 17.5 points (-107): While Thompson is averaging 17.7 points per game this season, that number is more reflective of his early struggles than his recent performance.

The veteran sharpshooter has hit this over in six consecutive games and averaged 23.2 points per game during that span. Although Dallas has a strong defence overall, the Mavericks are an excellent matchup for Thompson in particular as they allow the seventh-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA (37.1%).

Brunson over 6.5 assists (+118): There is a tonne of value on this line considering Brunson is averaging 6.7 assists on the season and has produced seven or more dimes in 60% of his games.

Brunson’s matchup on Tuesday is also favourable as the Detroit Pistons concede the sixth-most points per game in the NBA (116.7). Rangy point guard Cade Cunningham is also out, which should make life easier on Brunson, keeping the passing lanes clean for the New York Knicks’ top offseason acquisition.


Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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