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Ukraine official: Russia preparing attacks against Ukraine’s infrastructure as winter approaches
Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure once the temperatures drop, according to Ukraine’s national security and defence council secretary, Oleksiy Danilov.
The Kyiv Independent reports:
Speaking on the Ukrainian TCH TV Channel, Danilov said Russia is preparing attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure once the temperatures get lower.
He said:
The Russian Federation is preparing to do us harm once winter temperatures come.
They will attempt to strike at our critical infrastructure facilities, which ensure daily activities.
Danilov said Ukraine was prepared, adding that most of the country’s critical infrastructure was “under control,” and foreign partners were providing additional air defences.
Last year, Russian forces began conducting mass missile strikes against Ukraine’s infrastructure in early October.
The UK Ministry of Defence said last week that Russia is stockpiling its missiles to target the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in winter.
⚡️ Official: Russia prepares attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure in winter.
Russia is preparing attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure once the temperatures get lower, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov said on Nov. 2.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 2, 2023
Key events
The Biden administration today added 12 Russian companies to a trade blacklist for supporting Russia’s military with drones that could be used to aid in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the Commerce Department said in a statement.
Reuters reports that the companies added to the list, which include Hartis DV LLC and Alfakomponent, will effectively be barred from receiving items from suppliers except for possibly food and medicine, the Commerce Department added.
The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Biden administration has been aggressively using its trade blacklist, formally known as the entity list, to thwart Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine by making it harder for its military to get key technology from abroad. Critics have questioned how effective it has been, Reuters reports.
Russia has said Ukraine was risking a nuclear disaster after nine Ukrainian drones were shot down by Russian forces near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear station, Europe’s largest atomic power plant.
Reuters reports:
The Zaporizhzhia plant, which has been under Russian control since early March 2022, has six Soviet-designed VVER-1000 V-320 water-cooled and water-moderated reactors containing Uranium 235.
Four of the reactors are shut down while two of the reactors – No. 4 and No. 5 – are in so-called ‘hot shutdown’ mode, according to the Russian operator of the plant.
Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement:
The Kyiv regime continues to carry out provocations with the aim of creating the threat of a disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and disrupting the rotation of employees of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The ministry said Russian air defence forces had shot down nine Ukrainian drones near the Russian-held city of Enerhodar.
The IAEA has repeatedly said that the world is fortunate that no nuclear accident has yet happened at the Zaporizhzhia plant, where it says nuclear safety remains extremely fragile.
Shortly after sending troops into Ukraine in 2022, Russian forces took control of the Zaporizhzhia station. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of attacking the station.
Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said on Thursday she was confident that the European Union next month would advance Ukraine’s bid to join the bloc at a summit seen as a key milestone in Kyiv’s efforts to integrate with the west.
Reuters reports:
Presenting EU enlargement as a geo-strategic necessity, Baerbock told a conference in Berlin that the 27-nation bloc also needed to plough ahead with “tedious” internal reforms to be able to function with 30-plus members.
“We want to see Ukraine a member of our European Union,” said Baerbock, who is from the Greens party that forms part of Germany’s ruling coalition. “The European Union has to be enlarged. That is the geo-political consequence of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”
EU leaders will decide at a December 14-15 summit whether to grant Ukraine the formal start of membership talks, which for Kyiv is a top priority on a par with Western military and financial support.
“I am convinced that the European Council in December is going to send out that signal,” said Baerbock.
“However, an enlarged EU will only be stronger if we do what we have been so hesitant to do for so long – review and rethink the way in which our union functions.”
Membership negotiations – in which a candidate country must meet extensive legal, economic and political conditions – take many years.
Ukraine’s case is further complicated by the war, which Russia launched on February 24, 2022.
Ukraine would become the EU’s fifth most populous member state, as well as its poorest, meaning that – under current rules – it would absorb much of the bloc’s generous agriculture and development aid at the expense of current members.
Baerbock said a step-by-step enlargement must run in parallel with reforms to prevent the further growth of central EU institutions and reduce the use of national vetos.
An 81-year-old woman and a 60-year-old man were killed by Russian shelling in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region on Thursday, local authorities said.
AP reports:
The deaths were the latest civilian casualties in Moscow’s recent ramped-up bombardment of the front-line area.
Kherson is a strategic military region located on the Dnieper River near the mouth of the Black Sea. Unconfirmed reports say attacking Ukrainian troops have gained a foothold on the Russian-held side of the river during Kyiv’s monthslong counteroffensive.
The two civilians died when Russian artillery targeted Kherson region villages, according to Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin. Four others were injured in the strikes, which also damaged residential and public buildings, authorities said.
On Wednesday, one person died in Russian shelling that caused extensive damage in the Kherson region’s capital city of the same name. Prokudin called it “an apocalyptic scene.”
A 91-year-old local woman was killed in her apartment last weekend in what Prokudin described as a “terrifying” nighttime barrage.
The Kherson region is a key gateway to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and is now home to a lot of Moscow’s war logistics operations and rear supply depots.
Ukrainian forces recaptured the city of Kherson last November after nearly nine months of Russian occupation following Moscow’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24 2022. The Kremlin’s forces retreated across the river to the eastern side of the Dnieper.
The developments placed the city on the southern front line and at the mercy of Russian drone and artillery attacks from across the river that frequently target civilian areas.
The current counteroffensive, which started four months ago, so far has fallen short of the Ukrainian military’s goal of dislodging Russian forces from large areas. The war now appears set for another winter of grinding attrition.
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims by Ukraine’s commander-in-chief that the war had reached a stalemate. Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi made that observation to The Economist.
Russia is steadfastly pursuing its war goals, Peskov said. “It’s absurd to talk about any prospect for the victory of the Kyiv regime on the battlefield,” he added. “The sooner the Kyiv regime comes to realize that, the earlier some other perspectives will open up.”
Russian authorities commonly use the term “Kyiv regime” when referring to Ukraine’s democratically elected government.
Ukrainian forces repelled a new Russian assault near the town of Vuhledar in eastern Donetsk region and continued its attempt to press forward in the south, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.
Reuter reports that Vuhledar, a Ukrainian-held bastion at a strategic intersection between the eastern and southern front lines, has seen some of the bloodiest fighting of the 20-month-old full-scale war.
“There was an attempt by the enemy to advance in the Vuhledar direction, but our soldiers stopped it, causing heavy losses to the enemy: dozens of pieces of equipment, many killed and wounded,” he said on Telegram messenger.
Reuters said that they could not independently verify his battlefield account. The Ukrainian military has said the fighting has escalated along the eastern front in recent weeks.
The military said Russia was trying to regroup and recover from its losses near the eastern city of Avdiivka before launching more attacks.
“The enemy continues to try to encircle Avdiivka, but now not so actively – the enemy is trying to regroup and recover losses in order to attack further,” said Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for Ukraine’s Tavria military command.
Russia renewed a push to encircle the embattled town in mid-October, trying to overwhelm Ukrainian positions with constant barrages of artillery and waves of troops and fighting vehicles, according to local and military authorities in Ukraine.
In response to the evacuations of Ukrainian civilians from Kupiansk were announced, Igor Bodnia, the Internation Rescue Committee’s field manager in Kharkiv, said:
“The situation in Kupiansk is dire, and the impact on children is particularly devastating. Many of them have seen violence and displacement more than once, and they are in urgent need of protection and support. The IRC is working in a reception hub and dormitories in Kharkiv, focusing on providing primary health care to evacuated families, as well as psychological first aid to children to help them cope with the trauma they have experienced.”
“Intensified hostilities in Kupiansk are part of the worrying trend of an increased number of attacks that we are witnessing in the lead-up to winter. Just as temperatures plummet, communities in Ukraine will suffer from even more widespread destruction of the infrastructure they need to cope with the cold season. The combination of freezing weather, ongoing shelling, destroyed critical facilities and homes will make life even tougher for the people in affected areas.”
Summary
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Ukraine’s commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Gen Valery Zaluzhny, has said that the war in Ukraine in “at a stalemate”, warning that there is likely to be “no deep and beautiful breakthrough” soon in the counteroffensive against Russia.
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Ukraine’s army should have been able to push back at a pace of 18 miles a day as it breached Russian defensive lines, the general said.
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The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) has issued its latest defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine as of today, that Russian air defence has suffered significant loses.
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Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure once the temperatures drop, according to Ukraine’s national security and defence council secretary, Oleksiy Danilov.
Russian army continues to attack Donetsk oblast town of Avdievka in eastern Ukraine
In his morning summary (see 9.08) Ukraine’s armed forces spokesperson Andriy Kovalov gave an update on the battle for the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, which has been targeted by Russian artillery since mid October.
Kovalov said the Russian army continued to attack in Avdievka and its surrounding area, stating:
In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with the support of aviation, does not abandon attempts to encircle Avdiivka, but our soldiers staunchly hold the defence, inflicting significant losses on the invaders
Russian forces are believed to have suffered some of its biggest casualty rates so far this year as a result of continued “heavy but inconclusive” fighting around the Donetsk oblast town.
On Saturday, the UK Ministry of Defence’s intelligence update said Russia has likely committed elements of up to eight brigades to the sector where it initiated a “major offensive effort” almost a month ago.
Ukraine’s top general essay: The war is at a stalemate, what is the way out?
As well as the news story based on the interview with Ukraine’s commander-in-chief of armed forces General Valery Zaluzhny ( see 8.00, 8.11 and 8.34), the Economist has published a fascinating 4,000 word essay written by the commander (£) in which he assessing the current status of the war, and outlines what he thinks needs to happen to win it.
The piece is long and nuanced, and is vital reading in its entirety on The Economist’s website, but here are some highlights:
Zaluzhny states:
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The war is now moving to a new stage: it is now in a “positional” warfare of static and attritional fighting, as in the first world war, and no longer an example of “manoeuvre” warfare of movement and speed
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This“will benefit Russia, allowing it to rebuild its military power, eventually threatening Ukraine’s armed forces and the state itself”
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Russia’s air force has taken “huge losses” with over 550 air-defence systems destroyed, but it maintains “a significant advantage … and continues to build new attack squadrons”
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However, Russia’s air-defence systems increasingly prevent Ukrainian planes from flying, with Ukrainian defences doing the same to Russia.
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As a result Russian drones have taken over a large part of the role of manned aviation in terms of reconnaissance and air strikes.
Air power
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Basic weapons, such as missiles and shells, remain essential, but strengthened air power is key
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Ukraine needs to: overload Russia’s air-defence systems using decoy and attack drones; hunt down Russian drones using hunter drones equipped with nets; use signal-emitting decoys to attract Russian glide bombs; blind Russian drones’ thermal cameras at night
Electronic warfare (ew)
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EW – such as jamming communication and navigation signals – is vital to win the drone war
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Russia modernised its ew forces over the past decade, and is outperforming Ukraine – 65% of Ukraine’s jamming platforms at the start of the war were produced in Soviet times
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Ukraine has built its own electronic protection systems, but needs more electronic intelligence from its allies, including signals intelligence, and help to expand production of anti-drone ew systems in Ukraine and elsewhere
Counter-battery fire
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Artillery, rocket and missile fire make up 60-80% of all military activity
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When Ukraine first received Western guns in 2022, it was “quite successful” at locating and striking Russian artillery
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But the effectiveness of weapons like Excalibur, a gps-guided American shell, has “declined dramatically owing to improved Russian electronic warfare”
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Russia’s own counter-battery fire has improved, thanks to its use of Lancet loitering munitions and precision-guided shells
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Ukraine has achieved parity with Russia through a smaller quantity of more accurate firepower, but this “may not last”
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Ukraine must bolster local gps fieldsto make precision-guided shells more accurate in the face of Russian jamming
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Ukraine needs to use more kamikaze drones to strike Russian artillery
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Allies must send better artillery-reconnaissance equipment that can locate Russian guns
Mine-breaching technology
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Supplies at the start of the war was limited and outdated and new Western supplies, such as Norwegian mine-clearing tanks and rocket-powered mine-clearing devices, have “proved insufficient given the scale of Russian minefields, which stretch back 20km in places”
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When minefields are breached Russia quickly replenishes them by firing new mines from a distance
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Ukraine needs new technologies such as radar-like sensors and smoke-projection systems to conceal the activities of de-mining units
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Jet engines from decommissioned aircraft, water cannons and cluster munitions can breach mine barriers without digging into the ground
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New types of tunnel excavators, such as a robot which uses plasma torches to bore tunnels, can also help
Manpower
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Russia has failed to capitalise on its manpower advantage and cannot train and equip enough people
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Ukraine’s capacity to train reserves on its own territory is also limited with “gaps in … legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities”
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Ukraine is introducing a register of draftees, and Zaluzhny calls for an expansion of “the category of citizens who can be called up for training or mobilisation”
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It is introducing a “combat internship”, teaming new trainees with experienced front-line units
Conclusion
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Russia will have superiority in weapons, equipment, missiles and ammunition for a considerable time
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Military production from Nato is increasing but production can take a year or two, in the case of aircraft and command-and-control systems
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A prolonged positional war carries “enormous risks to Ukraine’s armed forces and to its state”
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To prevent that Ukraine needs: air superiority, improved electronic-warfare and counter-battery capabilities, new mine-breaching technology and the ability to mobilise and train more reserves
Zaluzhny states:
New, innovative approaches can turn this war of position back into one of manoeuvre
Ukraine official: Russia preparing attacks against Ukraine’s infrastructure as winter approaches
Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure once the temperatures drop, according to Ukraine’s national security and defence council secretary, Oleksiy Danilov.
The Kyiv Independent reports:
Speaking on the Ukrainian TCH TV Channel, Danilov said Russia is preparing attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure once the temperatures get lower.
He said:
The Russian Federation is preparing to do us harm once winter temperatures come.
They will attempt to strike at our critical infrastructure facilities, which ensure daily activities.
Danilov said Ukraine was prepared, adding that most of the country’s critical infrastructure was “under control,” and foreign partners were providing additional air defences.
Last year, Russian forces began conducting mass missile strikes against Ukraine’s infrastructure in early October.
The UK Ministry of Defence said last week that Russia is stockpiling its missiles to target the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in winter.
⚡️ Official: Russia prepares attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure in winter.
Russia is preparing attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure once the temperatures get lower, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov said on Nov. 2.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 2, 2023
UK Ministry of Defence: Russian air defence in Ukraine suffering significant losses
The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) has issued its latest defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine as of today.
Assessing the state of Russian air defences in Ukraine, it states:
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Russia has likely lost at least four long range surface-to-air missile (SAM) launchers to Ukrainian strikes over the past week. On 26 October 2023, Russian media reported that three Russian SA-21 launchers had been destroyed in the Luhansk region
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Ukrainian sources reported additional Russian air defence losses in Crimea
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Russia has long prioritised ample, high-tech, long range SAM systems as a key component of its military strategy
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The recent losses highlight that Russia’s integrated air defence system continues to struggle against modern precision strike weapons and will highly likely increase the already significant strain on remaining systems and operators
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There is a realistic possibility that as Russia replaces the destroyed systems in Ukraine it will weaken its air defences in other operational areas
Armed Forces of Ukraine spokesperson Andriy Kovalov posts update
Andriy Kovalov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces, has posted a daily update on the situation as of 10am today.
Kovalov said that in the past 24 hours:
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There have been 57 battles
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Russian carried out five missile strikes and 75 airstrikes, as well as shelling from the volcano fire jet systems on troops and settlements, resulting in deaths and injuries
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Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure have been destroyed and damage
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Ukraine war planes carried out nine strikes on personnel, weapons and military equipment and three on the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile complexes
Ukraine’s top general: Russia does not value the life of its troops
Zaluzhny also spoke about the fact that Russia’s attitude towards the lives of its troops has resulted in slow progress.
The 49-year-old told The Economist that he initially believed he could halt Russia “by bleeding its troops”.
It is estimated that while up to 70,000 Ukrainians have been killed and 100-120,000 injured, Russia’s casualties stand at an estimated 120,000 deaths, according to the Telegraph.
He said:
That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.
Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people.
On Tuesday Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said expectations of a swift end to the war were unrealistic.
In his nightly video address on Tuesday, he said:
The modern world is set up in such a way that it becomes accustomed to success too quickly. When the full-scale aggression began, many in the world did not think Ukraine would endure.
Zelenskiy has previously rejected criticism, mainly from western sources, that the counteroffensive against Russia was proceeding too slowly, saying the war was not akin to a Hollywood movie set.
Ukraine’s military said Russian forces were gearing up for fresh attacks in different sections of the front, but there has been little movement along the approximately 1,000km (600-mile) frontline in recent months.
Ukraine’s top general: ‘technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor’
Ukraine’s army should have been able to push back at a pace of 18 miles a day as it breached Russian defensive lines, the general said.
“If you look at Nato’s text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” Zaluzhny told the magazine.
When his troops got nowhere, he wondered if it was his commanders, so he changed them. They still had no luck.
He said he only got an insight when he reread a book published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, who analysed the battles of the First World War. It was called “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”.
He said: “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”
Ukraine’s top general: ‘There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough’
Ukraine’s commander-in-chief of armed forces General Valery Zaluzhny has said that the war in Ukraine in “at a stalemate”, warning that there is likely to be no quick “no deep and beautiful breakthrough” in the counteroffensive against Russia.
The candid assessment – which could cause headaches for world leaders attempting to maintain financial and military support for Ukraine – comes 18 months after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.
Speaking to the Economist, Zaluzhny said:
Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.
The general told the publication it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock.
There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.
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