Winning Gujarat will work as a morale booster for the Bharatiya Janata Party cadre in Karnataka feels chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, while pinning his hopes for a second term for the ruling outfit in the southern state. But the opposition Congress rejected Bommai’s claims. State elections are fought on local issues and a win or loss in another state is no indicator of how Karnataka will vote, it says.
“Our victory is guaranteed if we work with more vigour,” commented Bommai while calling the Gujarat win a vote for pro-incumbency and good administration. He was motivating the Karnataka BJP cadre to bring about a similar landslide victory for the party as seen in Gujarat in Karnataka as the state heads towards elections in 2023.
Mysuru MP Pratap Simha agrees that the Gujarat results will further activate the cadre to work towards a win in the upcoming Karnataka elections. He feels that people across Karnataka are in favour of Narendra Modi and the BJP.
“People have looked towards the central leadership, be it Modi or during Vajpayee ji’s term even in state elections,” said Simha.
Congress leaders News18 spoke to were elated with the win in Himachal Pradesh but express caution on the impact it could have. The results in one state do not directly impact prospects in another state, they said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi undoubtedly has considerable influence in Gujarat, but his magic which may help win Gujarat’s corporation or assembly elections will not have any impact in Karnataka, the leaders added.
On the question of whether the Karnataka BJP can manage a Gujarat-like juggernaut, Simha replied, “Not to the level we saw in Gujarat. But with the help of Modiji, Amit Shahji and Yogi ji we can ensure that we continue to be in power.” The state unit will have to break the alternating government trend and seal its place, he said.
Any election will have an effect on another state heading to elections, said CT Ravi, BJP national general secretary. “The Gujarat win will also have a partial impact as it will boost the confidence of our karyakartas. Local issues and the performance of the MLAs will also have an impact. It is important to ride on this victory in Gujarat and deliver another clear victory for the BJP in Karnataka,” he said.
Just because the Congress has lost Gujarat does not mean it will lose Karnataka, and a victory in Himachal Pradesh will not ensure a win here, said Priyank Kharge, Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee spokesperson and MLA from Chittapur. “State elections are fought on local issues and the performance of the leaders in the region,” he added.
Kharge further said that local issues like 40 per cent corruption and the PSI recruitment scam, border-sharing and water-sharing issues will govern elections this time.
AICC Tamil Nadu incharge and Congress spokesperson Dinesh Gundu Rao points out that while a win or loss would boost or bring down the morale of the party workers, it does not have any direct influence on the voters’ minds.
“When there are by-elections before general elections, the trend is normally the ruling party wins the by-elections but they lose the general elections. It’s a different ball game,” he told News18.
However, the Congress and BJP both have important takeaways from the two elections: state polls cannot be fought or won on the face of a popular central leader alone; people see what has been delivered on the ground as well.
For the BJP, the lesson to be learnt from the loss in Himachal Pradesh is that it cannot rely completely on the leadership of the Centre to pull it through every election, especially when there is a strong visible local leader at the ground level, says political analyst Sandeep Shastri.
“In Karnataka, both the Congress and the BJP have local leadership projections,” he said.
Shastri thinks that for the Congress, there are important lessons to learn from the Himachal elections, even though it won there. He feels that the party did not make the necessary effort and nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
“The Congress could have had a much more comfortable and commanding win if it had planned the elections better,” he commented.
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