:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/sports-betting/2023/05/18/yankees-vs-blue-jays-prop-bets-back-berrios-merrifield-on-105-parlay/2023-05-CP166893905.jpg "Partner Content | Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop bets: Back Berrios, Merrifield on +105 parlay")
[ad_1]
For the last time until mid-September, the Toronto Blue Jays face the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: We’re showcasing three plus-money plays from tonight’s prop market, including a combo with Jose Berrios and Whit Merrifield. We also think Anthony Rizzo has notable value on his run prop.
Here are our top Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop bets for May 18.
MLB odds as of 10:35 a.m. ET on 05/18/23.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop bets
Best Bet : Berrios 5+ strikeouts, Merrifield 1+ hits (+105)
His subpar ERA might suggest otherwise (4.70), but Berrios has done a nice job of working fairly deep into games so far this season. He’s averaging better than 5.2 innings per start and has pitched into the fifth (or later) in all eight outings.
That gives us faith in the right-hander topping a pretty modest strikeout total tonight.
Since 2021, Berrios has collected five or more strikeouts against the Yankees in five of six starts. And he’s averaged 6.7 Ks per outing against the Bronx Bombers in that span.
He’s perfectly league average in strikeout rate (22.8%, 49th percentile), but he couples that with an impressive 5.7% walk rate (78th percentile). This play is about volume, and there should be plenty of it for Berrios.
Backing Toronto’s starter at this number yields uninspiring -230 odds, though. So we’ve looped in Merrifield to bring us into plus-money territory.
The two-time MLB hits leader has a hit in 28 of 36 games (77.8%) this year. He should be back in the lineup tonight against Yankees starter Nestor Cortes, who Merrifield is 5-for-14 (.357) against with three doubles.
Also, Merrifield is a career .293 batter against lefties.
Key stat: In 15 home games this year, Merrifield has 15 hits (cashing this hit prop 12 times).
Quick pick
Rizzo over 0.5 runs (+125) : This is a really enticing price for a guy who’s been reaching base and scoring a lot lately.
Rizzo has reached base in all 15 games this month, posting a 1.003 OPS in that span. He’s also scored in 11 of those matchups.
Also, throughout his career against Berrios, Rizzo has been superb. He’s reached safely in 11 of 24 plate appearances, homering twice and posting a .727 slugging percentage, per Baseball Savant.
Rizzo, LeMahieu 1+ hits each (+104) : Another way to tap into Rizzo’s solid month is to pair him with DJ LeMahieu on their hit props.
Rizzo is batting .339 in May and is 9-for-22 (.409) against Berrios. LeMahieu has recorded a hit in 12 of 14 games this month and is batting .302 in that span.
Also, LeMahieu has gone 8-for-19 (.421) in his career against Berrios.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
[ad_2]
Source link
:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/sports-betting/2023/05/18/yankees-vs-blue-jays-prop-bets-back-berrios-merrifield-on-105-parlay/2023-05-CP166893905.jpg&description=Partner+Content+%7C+Yankees+vs.+Blue+Jays+prop+bets%3A+Back+Berrios%2C+Merrifield+on+%2B105+parlay){kind=link}