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The unbeaten Tampa Bay Rays come to Rogers Centre on Friday to open a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup between Drew Rasmussen and Jose Berrios looks lopsided, and we’re backing the Rays in multiple ways. Offence hasn’t been much of an issue for the visiting club yet, which has us eyeing Tampa to score first and exceed its projected run total.
Check out our Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and odds for the April 14 matchup at Rogers Centre.
MLB odds as of 9:10 a.m. ET on 04/14/23.
Best Bet : Rays -1 (-103)
Eventually, the Rays will lose a game. But it hasn’t happened yet, and we don’t think it’s happening tonight.
Tampa Bay (13-0) has admittedly played a pretty weak schedule so far, facing the Tigers, Nationals, A’s and Red Sox — four teams expected to miss the postseason.
Still, credit the Rays for dominating their opponents. All but one of their victories came by multiple runs, and altogether they’ve amassed a plus-71 run differential.
Now they’ll see a struggling Berrios, who has allowed 14 runs through 9.2 innings so far (11.17 ERA). Last year was a grind for Berrios, too, and that includes his outings against Tampa.
He went 1-1 in three starts against the Rays with a 6.08 ERA.
Toronto is 3-2 in its past five games, having scraped by with a pair of extra-inning wins in that span. Tampa, meanwhile, is cruising at historic heights. It may not be a fair fight.
Key stat: Tampa’s 13-0 start matches the longest season-opening win streak since 1987.
Quick picks
Rays to score first and win (+138) : The Jays allowed the visiting Tigers to score first in all three games of their recent series, and we think the Rays can do the same as the road side tonight.
The Rays have an excellent yes-run-first-inning rate (YRFI) of 53.9%. And Rasmussen has begun the season with 13 consecutive scoreless innings.
An early run for the Rays would turn this into a moneyline play, and Tampa clearly hasn’t had any issues in that regard yet.
Rays over 4.5 runs (-124) : We considered backing over 9 runs (-118), but this way we can specifically tail the hottest lineup at almost the same price.
Tampa has a .287/.364/.576 slash line right now. The Rays’ .940 OPS — in an admittedly small sample — is a mark only three players exceeded last season.
Also, Tampa is averaging 7.8 runs per game and has cleared this line in 10 of its past 11.
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Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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