We’ve honed in on three prop picks from today’s eight-game Saint Patrick’s Day slate.
The pregame narrative: Jaren Jackson’s primed to go off against the San Antonio Spurs while the Cleveland Cavaliers should keep Bradley Beal in check. We’re also backing Anthony Davis on the glass against one of the league’s worst-rebounding teams.
Find all our best NBA props picks for March 17 below.
NBA odds as of 9:20 a.m. ET on 03/17/2023.
NBA prop picks
Best Bet : Jackson over 21.5 points (-104)
Tonight should be the perfect storm for Jackson.
His teammate — Ja Morant — will be eligible to return to action on Monday, meaning we’ve got one game left to sniff out value with the superstar sidelined.
Jackson has averaged 19.5 points in the last six games without Morant. That’s lower than tonight’s total but it’s worth noting he cleared this line in half of those games while scoring 21 points or more four times.
But the kicker here isn’t Jackson’s production, it’s his opponent.
Playing the Spurs has been a gift to all this season. San Antonio has the worst scoring defence (122.1), the worst defensive rating (119.2) and the highest opponent field goal percentage (50.5%).
If that’s not enough to sway you, San Antonio allows the second-most points per game to power forwards in the NBA, according to Fantasy Pros.
Expect Jackson to breeze by this total.
Key stat: San Antonio allows the most points in the paint per game.
Beal under 23.5 points (-120) : Beal has averaged almost exactly 23.5 points this season (23.4) so we’re happy to take the under on this prop with him playing against an elite defence.
The Cavs have the best defensive rating in basketball (109.8) and hold opponents to the fewest points per game (106.8). They’ve been particularly stingy against guards this season allowing the fewest points per game to both shooting and point guards.
Beal did clear this mark against Cleveland earlier this season but that was way back in October in the third game of the season.
Davis over 13.5 rebounds (-121) : Asking any player to pick up 14 boards may seem like a lot but Davis has cleared this mark in five of his nine games since the all-star break. He’s averaging 13.7 rebounds in that span and has gone over this mark in two straight games.
Tonight he’ll play the Dallas Mavericks who rank second-to-last in rebounding rate (47.5%). They’re a team allergic to grabbing boards and that means The Brow should feast on the glass.
Davis had 15 rebounds when he played Dallas earlier this season.
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