Partner Content | Maple Leafs betting trends ahead of Game 5 vs. Tampa: Mitch Marner tearing up the NHL playoffs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 3-1 in their first-round series over the Tampa Bay Lightning despite failing to bring a complete effort to three of four games.

Toronto’s top stars have shown up at key moments, though, spurring a pair of comebacks on the road. The team’s best players are doing most of the damage, making them the focal point of this blog.

To read up on all the latest stats and info, check out our Maple Leafs betting trends.

Maple Leafs betting trends

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Mitch Marner is on fire

Toronto’s offensive stars are rising to the occasion and Mitch Marner is at the forefront.

The Maple Leafs winger is consistently finding the stat sheet, registering two-plus points in each game during the playoffs. Marner’s the only player in the league to do that and is unsurprisingly first in points during the postseason with 10.

He’s not just banking secondary assists, either, he’s driving offence. He’s first in assists with eight and first in primary assists with five.

The talented forward is also shooting the puck a healthy amount, taking at least three shots in three of four contests.

Marner is an excellent wager to score multiple points and a strong option to best his shot prop.

Still road warriors

Toronto’s late-season road success is carrying into the postseason.

The Maple Leafs were 5-1-0 across their final six road games of the regular season, with their lone blemish being a 2-1 loss to the Boston Bruins. They recently added to that with a pair of road wins over Tampa Bay.

They’ve now picked up three wins over the Lightning at Amalie Arena during this stretch which is notable for a couple of reasons. For one, the Bolts had the second-best home record (28-8-5) in the NHL this season.

Secondly, it was just the second time that Toronto won back-to-back road games in the playoffs since 2017.

At this point, bettors have to feel comfortable backing Toronto away from Scotiabank Arena.

Auston Matthews has arrived

It’s not that Auston Matthews was quiet to start this series. He had four points — all assists — across the first two games. It’s just that he wasn’t doing what he does best, which is scoring goals.

That all changed with a trip south of the border. The Maple Leafs sniper scored three goals over the squad’s last two games, reminding everyone of his elite ability to shoot the puck.

It helps that he’s putting more shots on net. The Toronto centre had five shots through the opening two games, a minuscule average of 2.5 per game and well below his season-long rate of 4.42.

Matthews has 12 shots over his last two outings, averaging six per contest.

We’re vouching for Matthews on a trio of markets, including anytime goalscorer, to score two-plus points and his shot prop.

Ryan O’Reilly exceeding expectations

Even the most positive of projections didn’t have Ryan O’Reilly performing at this level.

Toronto’s deadline acquisition is providing outstanding depth, a steady presence on the power play, and veteran leadership to a squad that could use all of the above.

Alongside Matthew Knies and Noel Acciari, he’s anchoring an elite third line. He’s simultaneously acting as a mentor for Knies who’s just getting his first taste of NHL action.

He’s also serving as a strong net-front presence on the power play. He has two points on the man advantage in this series and one marker at 6v5 with the goalie pulled.

With a point in six consecutive games, he’s a good wager to find the stat sheet as long as the juice remains palatable.

Over and over

You’d be a happy and profitable bettor if you just took the over in every game of this series.

The Maple Leafs and Lightning have combined for seven or more goals in all four games. It’s a continuation of a trend that followed these two squads during the regular season and last year’s playoffs.

The over on a 6.5-goal total has come through in 11 of the last 14 meetings between these two. The main culprit for this crazy run isn’t what you’d expect.

Andrei Vasilevskiy’s poor results against Toronto are the leading cause for this surprising over success.

The goaltender had a .897 save percentage against the Maple Leafs in last year’s playoffs, a .911 mark against the squad in this past regular season, and owns a horrendous .856 save percentage against them in this year’s postseason.

Until vintage Vasilevskiy shows up, bettors should continue lining up for the over.

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