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The Dallas Cowboys travel to San Francisco on Sunday in search of their first trip to the NFC Championship Game since 1995.
The pregame narrative: The Cowboys and 49ers have both been playing in high-scoring games recently, which gives us confidence in this over. At the same time, the elite pass rushers in this one should get home and Dallas’ red-zone supremacy gives them an excellent chance to cover the spread.
Check out our Cowboys vs. 49ers divisional round picks for Sunday, January 22.
Odds as of 10:14 a.m. on 01/20/2023.
Cowboys vs. 49ers divisional round picks
Best Bet : Over 46 points (-110)
These teams both have sterling defensive reputations, but we’re expecting the scoreboard operator to be busy on Sunday.
Dallas’ offence has scored 30.1 points per game with Dak Prescott under centre this season while the 49ers have averaged 31.9 points since Brock Purdy took over behind centre in Week 13, falling beneath 33 points just once.
As a result of those offensive efforts, both of these teams have been playing in high-scoring contests lately. The last 11 Cowboys games have averaged 53.1 points. Meanwhile, 49ers games have averaged 52.7 points since Purdy took the reigns.
Neither defence has an obvious weakness to target as both rank in the top five in both pass and rush DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Even if there’s no skeleton key for solving these units, we’re happy to back two offences that have found their stride down the stretch.
Key stat: The over has hit in seven of the last nine 49ers games.
Quick picks
Over 4.5 sacks (+102): In a game featuring Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons, taking the over on sacks seems like a smart move.
These teams combined for 5.7 sacks per game during the regular season and cleared this line in the wild-card round, despite the fact the Cowboys were playing the least-sacked quarterback in the NFL.
Neither of these teams gives up a remarkable number of sacks, but we’re happy to bet on two of the league’s top pass rushes to get home at plus money.
Cowboys +4 (-110): San Francisco has been blowing out opponents in the Purdy era, but they haven’t faced a defence nearly as fearsome as the one Dallas possesses.
Although the 49ers can still be expected to move the ball went and slow down an effective Cowboys offence we like Dallas to keep things close thanks to its massive advantage in the red zone.
| Team | Red-zone TD% | NFL rank | Red-zone TD% against | NFL rank |
| Cowboys | 73.3% | 1st | 50.9% | 8th |
| 49ers | 53.6% | 19th | 57.5% | 20th |
The 49ers may generate more red-zone opportunities, but the Cowboys are far likelier to convert on theirs.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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