The Toronto Maple Leafs attempt to avoid consecutive home losses on Sunday when they host the Washington Capitals.
The pregame narrative: Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov starts against his former team, although Toronto would probably prefer to give him some rest. The Capitals won the most recent matchup between these teams in December and have solid value as a slight underdog in this game.
Check out our top Capitals vs. Maple Leafs picks for January 29.
Odds as of 9:16 a.m. on 01/29/2023.
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs picks
Best Bet : Capitals over 3 goals (+104)
As Matt Murray deals with an ankle injury, the overworked Samsonov is heading back to the crease.
Sunday’s start marks Samsonov’s seventh in a 13-day span, which is an unusually hefty workload in today’s NHL. And it’s certainly not what the Maple Leafs had in mind when they traded for Murray this past summer, swallowing a cap hit in excess of $4.5 million in the process.
Samsonov coughed up six goals on Friday in a loss to the Senators, and we believe the Capitals can get at least halfway to that sum this evening.
Over their past 10 games, the Capitals have been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, which explains the plus-money price on this market. But things should be going better than they are, at least by Natural Stat Trick’s metrics:
|Goals per 60||2.26||28th|
|xGoals per 60||3.07||21st|
|High-danger chances per 60||14.57||10th|
Even with one of the league’s worst scoring rates over its past 10 games, Washington has scored three-plus goals in four games. That’s not a terribly compelling run, but Toronto’s goalie woes should help the Capitals cash in on their chances.
Key stat: The Capitals scored five goals against Samsonov and the Maple Leafs on Dec. 17.
Capitals moneyline (+110): Washington has already beaten Toronto this season, 5-2, and now it had the rest advantage in more ways than one.
We’ve said plenty about the Samsonov situation already, but Washington also has an extra day of rest as a team (two days instead of one). The Capitals have won three of their past six games, while the Maple Leafs have dropped four of their past eight.
Capitals +1.5, over 6 goals (+180): In case this game turns into a high-scoring affair, this mini-parlay gives us some puck line protection.
Washington has covered this spread in 21 of its past 25 games, while the oft-favoured Maple Leafs are only 20-30 ATS this season. Toronto has scored three-plus goals in five of its past seven matchups, so we think the over is within reach.
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