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The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game home series against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.
The pregame narrative: Based on the Brewers’ struggles against southpaws, tonight’s under looks like a strong pick. But don’t overlook the plus-money value of Milwaukee taking an early lead on Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi.
Check out our top Brewers vs. Blue Jays picks for May 30.
MLB odds as of 9:45 a.m. ET on 05/30/23.
Brewers vs. Blue Jays picks
Best Bet : Under 9.5 runs (-122)
Kikuchi has had an awfully bumpy ride through May, but we’re hoping tonight will go much more smoothly.
The left-hander has a 6.29 ERA in five starts and has failed to get past the fifth inning all but once. That comes after working a 3.00 ERA in five April outings.
Tonight, Kikuchi faces a Brewers squad that has been dreadful against lefties:
- 69 wRC+ (29th)
- 30.4% K-rate (30th)
- .274 wOBA (30th)
If Kikuchi is going to get back on track, now is the perfect time.
Also, although the Brewers have cleared this 9.5-run total in half of their past 10 games, it’s usually not their offence doing the heavy lifting. Milwaukee has averaged just 3.1 runs/game over its past 10.
On the mound, the Brewers rolling with Adrian Houser, who missed time at the start of the year with groin tightness. He’s looked great in May, though, posting a 2.25 ERA over four outings.
Houser has held opponents scoreless over his previous 11.1 innings, and now he’ll face a Toronto offence that has scored three or fewer runs in nine of 13 games.
Key stat: Each of Houser’s past three starts has hit this under.
Quick pick
Brewers tie no bet – first 3 innings (+112) : We’ll gladly take plus money on this three-inning line, looking for an early lead from the Brewers.
With Houser on the hill, Milwaukee is 2-0-2 at the F3 mark (meaning two wins and two pushes). Toronto, on the other hand, is 1-4-0 in Kikuchi’s past five starts on the F3 line.
As noted, the Brewers have struggled mightily against lefties. But Kikuchi’s recent woes make this a worthy flier at the right price.
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