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The Toronto Blue Jays need a win on Sunday to take their three-game set against the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: Though he doesn’t rank high in terms of star power, Brandon Belt has quietly put together a remarkable month offensively for the Blue Jays. We’re eyeing him to notch a hit today, and we also like the all-or-nothing approach of Joey Gallo to yield a run.
Here are our top Blue Jays vs. Twins prop bets for May 28.
MLB odds as of 10:05 a.m. ET on 05/28/23.
Blue Jays vs. Twins prop bets
Best Bet : Gallo over 0.5 runs (-121)
Gallo is the definition of an all-or-nothing hitter, but there’s enough to like about his offensive profile that we think he can scratch out a run today.
To define his abilities simply, Gallo is most likely to either mash the baseball, miss it completely or take a walk. He’s like a modern-day Adam Dunn, and his Baseball Savant page reflects as much:
If you only look at Gallo’s .203 batting average, this will seem like too much juice to deal with on a run prop. But his .542 SLG means a lot of his hits put him in scoring position (or clear the wall), and he’s among the top walkers in the sport.
As a result, he’s scored a run in seven of his past 11 starts.
Gallo’s production against Toronto starter Jose Berrios has been really, really bad: 2-for-16 with six Ks. But he’s also walked four times, and his expected numbers are far better than his actual numbers:
| Gallo vs. Berrios | Actual | Expected |
| BA | .125 | .226 |
| wOBA | .281 | .437 |
| SLG | .313 | .686 |
A key for this prop is that Gallo has been the Twins’ leadoff hitter in seven of his past 10 starts. If he’s back in the No. 1 spot today, this is a worthwhile price to back him at.
Key stat: Gallo has scored a run in 18 of 35 starts this year.
Quick pick
Belt over 0.5 hits (-121) : The hit train keeps on chuggin’ for Belt, who has cashed this prop in 14 of his past 18 games started — as well as nine of his past 11.
The resurgent 1B/DH is batting .350 this month. On the season, the lumbering lefty is batting .278 against right-handers.
Not a lot of heart-of-the-order hitters will come with a price like this to get a hit. Roll with Belt until he gives you a reason not to.
Berrios 5+ Ks, 18+ outs (-113) : These wagers work together in concert, which is why the -148 juice on Jose Berrios over 17.5 outs doesn’t get reduced too much by the addition of the strikeout prop. Still, we like this wager for the righty.
Berrios has collected 18 or more outs in five of his past seven outings, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning or later in all of those. So he’s giving himself a chance start after start.
As for the strikeouts, this is a number he’s reached in seven of 10 games this season, and he’s averaging 5.7 Ks per start. His 26% K-rate against the Twins in 73 plate appearances is a plus.
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