Opinion | The Blue Jays are about to find out how good they are

The National League-leading Atlanta Braves roll into town for a three-game series, beginning Friday, and that’s just the start of an upcoming stretch that could make or break the Blue Jays’ season.

Eight of the Jays’ next 11 series are against teams currently in possession of a playoff spot. The only clubs that aren’t — the New York Yankees, Houston and the New York Mets — could be by the time they face the Jays.

It’s a gruelling part of the schedule that will last more than a month. By the time it ends, the official start of summer will be two days away and the trade deadline will follow about a month later. How the Jays handle themselves in the weeks to come figures to shape how the rest of the year plays out.

If there’s a positive to latch onto, it’s that the Jays have already played a bunch of road games. The Jays have completed two three-city road trips and there’s only one remaining. Nobody in baseball has played fewer home games than the Jays’ 12 at Rogers Centre.

The heavy dose of early-season travel came at the Jays’ request. The club wanted additional time from Major League Baseball to complete Phase 1 of its ballpark renovations. That created a difficult opening week with trips through St. Louis, Kansas City and Los Angeles but the payoff is just around the corner.

Twenty of these upcoming 36 games are at home. The first homestand features Atlanta and division rivals New York and Baltimore. Other matchups include the American League East-leading Rays, the AL West-leading Rangers and two series against the AL Central-leading Twins.

There are also sets against the NL wild-card Brewers and the Astros. The only team currently under .500 is the Mets, who entered play Thursday with an 18-19 record and looking to gain ground on the Braves after recently getting Justin Verlander back from the injured list.

We’re about to find out what this Jays team is made of. The next five-plus weeks will be the club’s most difficult stretch until the tail end of September, when the Jays close out the season with 12 games against the Yankees and Rays, a time when the AL East could be up for grabs.

Before the Jays can worry too much about the post-season, they need to take care of the present, and that starts Friday against the Braves. The series will mark the return of former fan favourite Kevin Pillar and general manager Alex Anthopoulos. More importantly, it’s a measuring stick series to see where the Jays are at following a disappointing 3-6 road trip through Boston, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

The assignment won’t be easy. Third-year phenom Spencer Strider, who is tied for the major-league lead in strikeouts with Kevin Gausman, gets the call on Friday. In Game 2, 23-year-old Bryce Elder and his 1.74 ERA will take centre stage. Sunday’s starter has yet to be announced.

The Jays will counter with a rotation that figures to be either really good or really bad. Rarely is it anything in between. Chris Bassitt and his 2.45 ERA since April 7 gets the opener, then it’s the unpredictable José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

The AL East, or a wild-card berth, can’t be won during this upcoming stretch, but it could be lost. With a more balanced schedule in effect, the Jays have six fewer games than normal against teams within their ultracompetitive division. That might boost the Jays’ overall winning percentage, but it also will make it more challenging to cover ground later in the year.

The Jays entered Thursday’s off-day trailing the Rays by 7 1/2 games. That’s the same number the Jays were behind the Yankees at the same point last season. A month later that deficit had grown to 12, within a few more weeks it was a season-high 16 1/2.

The Yankees’ hot start essentially wrapped up the division before the all-star break. The Rays could find themselves in a similar boat before long, but the Jays have three series remaining against Tampa Bay to stop that from happening. One of those takes place later this month at Tropicana Field.

The Jays’ stated goal from the start of spring training was to win the division. Last year’s experience in a wild-card series against Seattle showed the pitfalls of trying to advance through a best-of-three series when anything can happen. The preference is to secure a first-round bye and a spot in the best-of-five division series.

They can’t lose sight of that now, which means they can’t lose sight of the Rays. The Jays don’t need to make up much ground during this difficult stretch, they just can’t afford to lose much either. If the Jays hold the fort against the contenders and beat up on everyone else, they’ll still have a shot at first place. If they slip much further, it will be lights out on the division.

Those might seem like a wild claim in the middle of May about a team that’s five games over .500. But good teams don’t win the AL East, only the great ones do. We’re about to find out which label the Jays deserve to have.

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