On August 14, Pakistan marked the 76th anniversary of its Independence Day amidst continuing uncertainties and imponderables. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, had dissolved the National Assembly on August 9, three days ahead of the expiry of its term. Pakistan’s constitution requires that national elections be held under a caretaker government to be decided, if possible, through an agreement between the prime minister and the Leader of the Opposition. In this case, that was to be between Sharif and Raja Riaz.
Riaz was a member of the National Assembly belonging to former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf Party (PTI) but became a dissident. He voted for the no-confidence vote against Khan in April 2022 and did not resign from the Assembly when the Khan loyalists did. Thus, he became Leader of the Opposition, although a weak one. This helped Sharif and him coming to an agreement on the name of the caretaker Prime Minister.
Sharif and Riaz settled on the name of Senator Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar who is a little-known politician belonging to Baluchistan, although he is a Pushtoon himself. Kakar was given the oath of office of Prime Minister by President Arif Alvi on August 14. He will now form a caretaker government. Its main constitutional role would be to carry on routine administration and help the Election Commission to conduct free and fair elections. The constitution mandates that these should be held within ninety days of a pre-mature dissolution of the National Assembly but it is unlikely that this stipulation would be adhered to. Pakistan’s Council of Common Interests, which consists of the Central and the Provincial Governments decided, earlier this month, to accept a digitally conducted census. This would require the delimitation of constituencies. It would not be possible to conduct this exercise within three months. Hence, elections will be delayed till perhaps the first half of next year if not later.
The PTI-friendly Pakistan Supreme Court Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial will be retiring next month. His successor, whose appointment has already been announced, will be Faez Isa. While he may insist that elections be held at the earliest, it is likely that he will show a degree of leeway to the anti-PTI parties and also the Army by not creating judicial embarrassments for the delay in the elections. The outgoing PDM government amended the constitution empowering the caretaker administration to take economic decisions relating to ongoing bilateral and multilateral arrangements with foreign countries. This was also a clear indication that elections would not be held by November, as constitutionally required.
There is another, and certainly a most important angle, to the timing of the next election. After the PTI supporters’ violent protests of May 9 in which many military installations, including the residence of Corps Commander Lahore, were entered and partially ransacked, there is no way Army Chief Asim Munir can contemplate a situation in which the PTI, either led by Imran Khan or otherwise, comes to power. The Army had then stated that what the external enemies of Pakistan (read India) were never able to achieve, internal irresponsible political parties were able to do so. Thereafter, the Army targeted senior PTI leaders, some of whom left the party. It also encouraged the PDM government to proceed with corruption cases against Imran Khan.
Khan has been convicted in the Toshakhana case. He was awarded a prison sentence and has been imprisoned. Consequent, to his conviction he cannot contest an election for the next five years unless the judiciary intervenes to reverse the decision. The question to which no one has a definite answer relates to the toll that these judicial actions and conviction has taken on Khan’s political popularity in the crucial province of Punjab. The assumption is that with Khan out of electoral reckoning, the exodus of leaders from the PTI would continue and the party will become ineffective in the coming elections, if not implode. Asim Munir would like that to happen. For that too, a delay in the elections would be useful. It would give the Army time to wean away Khan’s support from the grassroots by painting him as so ambitious that he is willing to damage Pakistan by creating a rift between the Army and the people.
The basic message being sent out by Asim Munir is that no one can create fissures between the Army and the people. He strongly reiterated this signal during his address on August 14 at the Azadi Parade on Independence Day at the Pakistan Military Academy at Kakul. Munir said, “The Army and people are one.” In what can only be considered as an attack on Imran Khan and the PTI, he said, “We continue to withstand the evil designs of the inimical forces, forces of instability and chaos which are eager in their failed attempts to undo Pakistan.” It is never easy to manage elections but the Pakistan Army has the instrumentalities to attempt to do so. In any event, Asim Munir knows that it is either him or Khan. Both cannot be in the same Pakistani scabbard. Hence, a delay in the elections is inevitable.
During the coming months, the traditional mainstream parties will begin reaching out to their traditional constituencies and also attempt to expand their footprint. The PML(N) would also like to bring back Nawaz Sharif from his London exile to Pakistan. It is uncertain how that will play out. While the politics of the parties will take place, for India, the issue would be, as it always is, how will the Army conduct itself. This question acquires an urgency because Asim Munir has not given any firm indication of the kind of relations he would like with India.
A glimpse of his attitude towards India was revealed in his Kakul speech. After spewing the usual Pakistani venom against India on Jammu and Kashmir, Munir referred to India-Pakistan ties. Even if allowances are made for the occasion and the venue of his speech, Munir’s formulations reeked of complete hostility against India. He repeated the hackneyed accusation that India has never “reconciled” to the “idea” of Pakistan. He went on to say, “The strategic calculus of our arch-rival skewed by its out-sized ambition carrying an illusion of being a great power and blinded by Hindutva driven hyper-nationalism needs serious attention of the world.” What Munir and the generals should know is that the world is not blind to the great contrast between India, which is making steady progress and seeking to maintain balance in a complex and diverse society and Pakistan, which has promoted terrorism which is now biting it.
This was seen when Munir reminded the Afghan Taliban of the hospitality that Pakistan had given to the Afghans and, at a minimum, expected that it would not allow Afghan territory to be used against Pakistan. The Pakistani generals swagger of two years ago, when with their assistance, the Afghan Taliban gained a military victory has now been replaced by pleading with them to desist from assisting the TTP. The generals are only getting a taste of their own medicine! What is obviously most painful to them is that it is being given by the beneficiaries of Pakistani policies. But then such are the vagaries of statecraft and interstate relations.
While Pakistan has to set its house in order, yet, its capacity for irrational conduct can never be ruled out. The history of India-Pakistan relations bears witness to the veracity of this assessment. Hence, in the coming months, India will have to be alert and cautious especially as Asim Munir will look upon India holding the G20 summit and its economic progress with great envy.
The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
