A study by the Indian Institute of Science claims that the city of Bangalore may breathe a sigh of relief by mid-May when Covid cases hit the peak.
According to the Department of Computational and Data Science (CDS) Bengaluru might begin the journey towards flattening the Covid curve from May 17. In addition, the academicians also predicted that the Covid death toll could increase from 8,057 to 14,220 deaths by June 11.
Using multi-dimensional partial differential equation model by taking into account factors such as vaccination, lockdown scenarios and the assumption of two unreported cases for every reported case, the experts from the esteemed institution are hopeful of the proposed lockdown till May 24 to bring down the fatality rate and curb the virus spread. They said the total number of covid-19 cases would come down by 28 lakh to 13.93 lakh in the second week of June and the death toll can be brought down to 14,220 from the projected 26,171 on June 11.
However, the IIsc analysis did not predict a decrease in the number of Covid deaths despite the flattening of the curve. Instead, the study showed that the number of covid-19 deaths will continue to see a steady increase from 9,664 fatalities on May 17 to 14,220 deaths on June 11.
Commenting on the analysis, Sashikumaar Ganesan from IIsc told Bangalore Mirror that the number of Covid induced deaths will not reduce immediately as active cases are likely to see an increase in the severity of infection many days after contracting the virus.
Taking into account the steady increase in Covid cases in the state, Ganesan also cautioned against the relaxing of lockdown norms after 30 days especially the border with Tamil Nadu which may witness an increase in Covid cases just as Bengaluru hits its peak.
The cumulative Covic-19 death toll in Karnataka Sunday rose to 18,776. Of the 47,930 fresh infections, 20,897 were from Bengaluru Urban alone. Ballari emerged as another major hotspot in the state with 2,141 infections and 21 fatalities reported on Sunday.