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Monsoon progress likely to be dampened post-arrival in Kerala around June 4


The progress of the monsoon is likely to be dampened after its expected arrival in Kerala around June 4 with a model error of +/-4 days due to the chances of the development of a low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea around two days later, officials said even as the model outputs remained highly variable.

The monsoon covers the entire country by July 5 . (REUTERS)

June 1 is the normal date for monsoon arrival in Kerala. But India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a marginally delayed onset on June 4.

The advance of the monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset in Kerala. It is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season. The monsoon covers the entire country by July 5 and brings relief from scorching summer. It is critical for India’s economy with 51% of the country’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, being rain-fed.

An IMD official said the models were showing the likelihood of a low-pressure area development over the Arabian Sea around June 6. “Everything will depend on the trajectory and intensity of that low-pressure system. Will it move towards the Indian coast or away from our coast? Models are indicating several different scenarios”

The official said they cannot announce anything five days in advance. “So, we have to wait and watch and issue a warning soon. If it [the low-pressure areas] forms and intensifies, there are high chances of monsoon progress being impacted,” said the official. “We have not seen an indication of a strong monsoon/cross-equatorial flow yet. It may boost in the next couple of days following which favourable onset conditions may begin to develop over Kerala.”

The northern limit of the monsoon continued to pass through the Bay of Bengal while the monsoon line covered Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Conditions were favourable for further advance of the monsoon into parts of Maldives and Comorin, Southwest Bay of Bengal, Southeast Bay of Bengal, Central Bay of Bengal, and Northeast Bay of Bengal during the next two to three days, IMD said in its bulletin.

Skymet Weather vice president (climate and meteorology) Mahesh Palawat said they were expecting monsoon onset to happen around June 3 or 4 but there is a lot of uncertainty over its progress. “The low-pressure area is expected to develop over the Arabian Sea around June 6 or 7 and may intensify into a depression. There is no certainty if it will develop into a cyclone. Once it develops, all the moisture will be concentrated around the depression which will hamper the further progress of the monsoon.”

He said there may be good rains on the west coast but monsoon may not touch interior areas till around June 10. “The cross-equatorial flow, a must for monsoon onset, is getting organised. We have to see when the wind direction changes to southwesterly and when monsoon onset can be declared but conditions are at the moment not very favorable for monsoon’s progress immediately.”

A western disturbance was lying over north Pakistan and an induced cyclonic circulation over Punjab at lower tropospheric levels. Another western disturbance was lying over northeast Afghanistan in the middle tropospheric level and was likely to merge on June 1.

High moisture feed from the Arabian Sea to northwest India in middle tropospheric levels was bringing thunderstorms and rainfall to parts of northwest India.

During monsoon, western disturbances normally do not impact the Indian region, except during monsoon breaks when they can interact with other systems. “Western disturbances move to northern latitudes and a southwesterly wind pattern is established during monsoon season,” said former earth sciences ministry secretary M Rajeevan.

There is a nearly 100% probability of El Nino conditions during monsoon and is expected to continue until next year, IMD said last week. The 2023 El Nino is expected to develop following a triple dip La Nina event (2020-22). La Nina is the opposite of El Nino and is characterised by cooler currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific.

El Nino is characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has a high correlation with warmer summers, drought, and weaker monsoon rains in India.



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