The south-west monsoon is likely to be active over central and eastern India, with widespread rainfall till September 21, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.
“August has been extremely dry. Rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and other parts of central India will help reduce the deficiency marginally,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather Services, a private forecaster. “The northwestern parts of the country will remain dry. Western Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana will continue to remain dry. We do not expect any major revival in these states. We are likely to end with below normal rainfall for the monsoon season.”
August was the driest and warmest for the entire country since record keeping began in 1901, according to weather bureau data. Rainfall in August over central and peninsular India was also the lowest since 1901, making it one of the worst months of monsoon deficiency in history, the weather officer said on August 31.
There is a 10% deficiency in rainfall over the country since June 1, the official start date of the south-west monsoon, with 9% deficiency over the peninsula, 9% deficiency over central India, 1% deficiency over northwest India and 19% deficiency over eastern and northeastern India.
There’s a cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood. An elongated low-pressure area is running from this cyclonic circulation to Bay of Bengal across eastern Madhya Pradesh, southern Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha. Another low-pressure area is likely to form over northwest Bay of Bengal in the next 72 hours.
“Rain will continue over east and central India because there are low-pressure systems developing now,” Palawat said. “This rainfall may not be useful to the current cropping cycle but it is good for the rabi season.”
Rainfall in September is likely to be normal, ranging between 91% to 109% of the long-period average, the weather bureau has predicted. Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over many areas of northeastern India, adjoining eastern India, Himalayan foothills and some areas of east-central and south peninsular India. Below normal rainfall is likely over most areas of the remaining parts of the country, it said.
Isolated, extremely heavy rainfall is likely over eastern Uttar Pradesh on September 11. Over central India, light to moderate fairly widespread rainfall, thunderstorm and lightning is likely over western Madhya Pradesh on September 11 and 15, eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on September 11-15 and over Vidarbha on on September 13-15.
Over eastern India, light to moderate, fairly widespread rainfall and thunderstorm with lightning is likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Bihar on September 11 and 12, over Odisha on September 11-15, over Jharkhand on September 13 -15 and over Gangetic West Bengal on September 14 and 15, the Met department said.
Currently, El Niño conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean and sea surface temperatures are above average. El Niño is likely to continue up to the first quarter of 2024. It often leads to a weak south-west monsoon.