Less than 10 per cent of Toronto could decide who the next mayor is. What that means for the election

Toronto is a city of three million people, but just 200,000 of them could decide who will be its next mayor.

That’s the tale told by some rough electoral math, as the crowded race to replace John Tory heats up.

As of Friday, 46 candidates had signed up for the June 26 byelection. Under the city’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the winner will only need to get more votes than any other challenger, not a majority, and the unusually high number of big-name contenders increases the likelihood whoever comes out on top will win far less than half the ballots cast.

Add to that the possibility that turnout for the special byelection will be low, and Toronto’s next leader — who will take charge of a $16-billion annual budget and new powers enabling them to overrule a majority of council — could require the backing of just a fraction of the 1.9 million citizens eligible to mark a ballot.

Voter turnout math shows local democracy is broken, say critics

To some city hall watchers, it’s an indication local democracy is broken.

“It’s extremely troubling,” said Michael Urban, chair of the Ranked Ballot Initiative (RaBIT), a group that advocates for changes to the city’s electoral process.

“You have a system here that could very easily be unrepresentative of what Torontonians want. And in a democracy, that’s not how it’s supposed to work.”

With no incumbent and election rules allowing councillors to run without resigning their seat, the 2023 mayor’s race is wide open. Of the candidates registered to date, a half-dozen look to have the experience and organizational backing required to mount a serious challenge.

Among them are ex-police chief Mark Saunders, Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter, former Davenport councillor Ana Bailão, and sitting council members Josh Matlow and Brad Bradford. Former NDP MP Olivia Chow is expected to register soon.

A candidate could win with only a fifth of the vote

A lot will happen in the 10 weeks between now and voting day. Candidates could drop out, or two or three front-runners could separate themselves from the pack. But as it stands, some campaigns think a candidate could secure victory with as little as a fifth of the vote.

“You could certainly win with 20 per cent, given the field today,” said a senior official on one of the leading campaigns, who like other operatives spoke to the Star on the condition they not be named, in order to discuss internal strategy.

“Everyone is trying to get to 20 or 25 per cent, knowing they might need more than that,” said a senior member of another campaign.

How many votes that translates to will depend on how many voters go to the polls. Just 30 per cent of eligible Torontonians cast a vote in last fall’s municipal election, a historic low experts blamed on COVID-19 and a contest in which Tory faced no big name challenger. He strolled to victory with about 61 per cent support, or 340,000 votes.

If turnout for June’s byelection stays at October’s levels, to win with 25 per cent support a candidate would need about 140,000 votes. If they needed 30 per cent to win, that would be close to 170,000.

If turnout matched the 2018 election’s 41 per cent, which is close to the historical average for Toronto, a candidate would need about 194,000 votes hit 25 per cent, and 230,000 to get 30 per cent.

In all those scenarios, the mayor-elect wouldn’t get the backing of more than 13 per cent Toronto’s nearly two million eligible voters.

Dennis M. Pilon, an associate professor of political science at York University, predicts that “very, very few people are ultimately going to make this decision” about who becomes mayor.

He expects the byelection will suffer from all the factors that normally limit participation in local elections, but “on steroids.”

Lack of political parties means municipal voter turnout is lower

Turnout in municipal races is generally lower than federal and provincial contests, because the lack of political parties makes it harder for voters to determine which candidate aligns with their views, Pilon said.

In addition, the upcoming byelection, which was triggered by Tory’s abrupt resignation, will be for mayor only. In a regular municipal election, candidates for mayor and councillor are both on the ballot, and mayoral hopefuls can tap into council allies’ local ground games to get supporters to the polls.

Finally, the byelection’s three-month campaign period will be half as long as a normal race, meaning voters will have less time to engage before election day, which is scheduled for a week in late June when many families already have one eye on vacation.

“I’m prepared to put money right now on the fact that the turnout will be well, well, well below (the October election),” Pilon said.

Low turnout could lead to more polarizing election campaign

If candidates do need only a sliver of eligible voters to win, it could lead to a more polarizing campaign. Instead of appealing to a large swathe of the electorate with broadly popular platforms, mayoral hopefuls try to energize their bases with more extreme progressive or conservative policies.

“In a low turnout election, you win not by increasing the number of people who support you, but making sure that everyone who actually supports you gets themselves to the polls,” said one progressive organizer.

Zachary Taylor, an associate professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario, cautioned that forecasts about a candidate squeaking into the mayor’s office with anemic support are overstated.

He predicts the field will narrow as leading candidates vie for the limited financial and organizational resources a required for a winning campaign (Tory raised $2 million for the 2022 race). Those who can’t muster the backing will drop out, reducing the chance the popular vote splits between five or six candidates.

Toronto’s competitive 2003 mayoral election could be a guide. It started with at least five high-profile challengers in a field of dozens, but David Miller eventually emerged as a front-runner and won with a “respectable” 43 per cent of the vote, Taylor said.

Taylor acknowledged that provincial and federal byelections have lower turnout, but he argued that’s because premiers and prime ministers aren’t on the ballot, so the outcome doesn’t affect who’s in charge of government. By contrast, the June byelection will determine who takes charge at city hall.

Turnout could also be boosted by the fact the campaign looks likely to centre on issues residents care deeply about, like public safety and housing affordability.

“I think if the candidates put forward very clear proposals that really contrast with each other, the race could really focalize in a way that could generate a lot of attention and excitement,” Taylor said.

Ben Spurr is a Toronto-based reporter covering city hall and municipal politics for the Star. Reach him by email at bspurr@thestar.ca or follow him on Twitter: @BenSpurr

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