Ireland v Scotland: Rugby World Cup – live

29 mins: More bad news for Scotland, as Ireland’s pack appear to be up to full speed. Andrew Porter dominates at the breakdown, and Scotland’s expansive attacking style is not making much impact.

27 mins: Just before that Ireland score, I had noted that, considering they conceded a try in the first minute, things weren’t going too badly for Scotland. The stats are still pretty even, but Ireland lead The Only Stat That Matters, 12-0.

TRY! Ireland 12-0 Scotland (Keenan 25′)

24 mins: It’s become a kicking battle, with Ringrose controlling Russell’s downfield kick with his boot – careful now – and then kicking and rushing towards the replacement full-back, Ollie Smith, who deals with it well under pressure.

22 mins: Ireland seem to be targeting Darcy Graham with their high kicks – with mixed results so far. Scotland get a turnover in midfield here, setting up a lineout – which Ireland win. Gibson-Park’s swirling box-kick is well claimed by Russell.

21 mins: Another enforced change, this time for Ireland. Mack Hansen is replaced by Stuart McCloskey, who is making his World Cup debut.

20 mins: Doris picks up the ball and Sexton’s box-kick is collected by Darcy Graham, who calls a mark. The kick appeared to hit the spider-cam wire that passes over the field – that happened in the England game too. What are the chances, eh?

19 mins: Jamie Ritchie is leaving the field, holding his side – he is replaced by Matt Fagerson. It looks like a permanent replacement, and the captain looks absolutely devastated on the sidelines.

18 mins: … and they so nearly score a second try! Sexton delays his pass and finds O’Mahony, who offloads to Mack Hansen. The wing is well covered but can’t reel the ball in – a decent chance missed.

17 mins: Scotland may feel particularly aggrieved because after Keenan’s slip, James Lowe delivered a superlative 50:22 kick to get Ireland deep into opposition territory …

16 mins: Hugo Keenan collects a high ball – but slips and his boot appears to cross the line. Scotland protest, and a big-screen replay gets the crowd involved, but the referee and TMO claim his boot didn’t touch the line itself. Hmm.

15 mins: Ireland advance into the Scotland territory but a thudding tackle from Grant Gilchrist keeps them at bay. Scotland have a scrum, on the edge of their own 22; Kinghorn, meanwhile, has failed his HIA and won’t be coming back.

14 mins: Scotland have had 81% territory, and 71% possession. Ireland have made 52 tackles. And yet one team have scored a try, and it’s not Scotland. Remarkable, but also perhaps a little predictable.

13 mins: Tonight’s centurion, Peter O’Mahony, dislodges the ball from Schoeman’s grasp but it comes back to Scottish hands. The gap does not come, though, and Scotland eventually concede a penalty, to roars and clenched fists from the defence.

12 mins: Scotland are still on the front foot, Russell spinning left and right in search of a gap in the green wall ahead.

10 mins: Ritchie is fit to carry on, and claims the lineout ball. From there, Russell triggers a launch play with Tuipuloto out to the right, but Darcy Graham to his right runs out of space.

9 mins: Another Scotland penalty for a high tackle, and Russell sticks with the plan, kicking to the corner. Furlong looks to be feeling his shoulder after the early battles up front, while Scotland captain, Jamie Ritchie, also needs attention.

7 mins: Blair Kinghorn has to go off for a head injury assessment – he’s replaced by Ollie Smith. Bad news for Gregor Townsend, particularly as he has six forwards and only two backs on his bench.

6 mins: Scotland retain the ball and bustle across the field, but Van der Merwe gets isolated and the whistle goes. Typically solid work from Caelan Doris at the breakdown, and Russell might regret not taking the three points there.

4 mins: What a brutally efficient start from Ireland. Can Scotland respond quickly? They make a decent start, Russell using forwards Schoeman and Fagerson to make gains, before a penalty is awarded, and sent to the corner by Russell.

2 mins: Sexton opens up space against the tightly-bunched Scottish defence and finds Ringrose, whose curved run escapes two tackles. He offloads to Hansen, who shifts it to James Lowe on the left. Textbook – although Sexton narrowly misses the conversion.

TRY! Ireland 5-0 Scotland (Lowe 1′)

Here we go!

Both teams line up for the anthems: first “Ireland’s Call”, then “Flower of Scotland”. Both are sung heartily around the stands, where I would say green shirts and outnumbering navy by about two-to-one. It’s the Celtic classic. At the Stade de France. The World Cup knockouts start here. It’s on!

Some more of your pre-game thoughts. Ten minutes to go – it’s crunch time, alright.

As a humble live-blogger trying to keep you all up to date, I’m genuinely a bit scared by those permutations. Here’s Rob Kitson on Scotland’s judgment day:

So, about those permutations. South Africa top Pool B with 15 points, having played all their games. Ireland have 14 points, Scotland 10.

• Any Ireland win will send them through as pool winners.

• Scotland must beat Ireland and deny them a bonus point to finish second on head-to-head record, with South Africa topping the pool.

• If Ireland get a bonus point and Scotland do not, Ireland will top the pool on the head-to-head rule from South Africa.

• A Scotland bonus-point win without Ireland getting anything from the game will see them qualify in second place behind South Africa.

• If Scotland win and both teams get a bonus point, then they all join South Africa on 15 points – and points difference will determine top spot in Pool B.

• Scotland (+97 on points) must win by 21 points or more to claim top spot ahead of South Africa (+117). Ireland (+122) would qualify as runners-up, having beaten South Africa.

• If Scotland do not win by such a margin, then South Africa will finish top on points difference and Scotland second.

• Ireland will guarantee top spot if they secure two points from their match against Scotland.

Indeed I am – apologies, my handle was missing before. Tweet/X me @niallmcveigh.

Stephen Vallely offers a more concise assessment. “The fact that either Scotland or Ireland are likely to go out while that dire England team progress is a joke.”

In defence of England: at this World Cup at least, the display against Samoa was an off-day. I mean, what an off-day, but still. But, to be clear, the draw at this World Cup – made based on rankings back in December 2020 – has clearly diminished the event.

The best four sides in the world – Ireland, France, South Africa and New Zealand – would have made for immense semi-finals, and as the side fifth in the rankings, Scotland should not have to get through three of those four sides just to get to that stage.

Simon McMahon sums up the mood in my inbox: “It was always going to come to this, Niall. Townsend, Ritchie, Russell and the rest, as you’d expect, have been making positive noises in the build up to tonight, but it must be hard for them not to feel at least slightly peeved at the luck of the draw that saw the best Scotland side since 1991 placed in a group with the two best sides in the world.

“Not to mention the fact that some other teams who they are clearly superior to (I’m looking at you, England and Wales) have already progressed to the knockout stage. Still, them’s the breaks I suppose, and if you want to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best at some point. And then face either New Zealand or France in the quarter-final. Talk about doing it the hard way. Good luck Scotland, but I’ll not hold my breath.”

Ugo Monye’s big-match preview is here:

The teams

Preamble