As the Ukraine war enters its second year, the European Union (EU) and Ukraine are looking to India’s active engagement in efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis and to counter the impact on global food and energy prices, including through the G20 process.
EU ambassador Ugo Astuto and Ukrainian chargé d’affaires Ivan Konovalov told HT in a joint interview that Russia could end the crisis by withdrawing its troops from Ukraine and ending hostilities.
Excerpts from the interview.
Q. A year after the start of the Ukraine war, how would you assess the situation?
Astuto: What we see is an unprovoked and unjustified aggression by Russia, which is causing unmeasurable tragedy for the Ukrainian people. We see the bombing of civilians, we see mounting evidence of crimes against civilians being committed in occupied areas. We know about Bucha but unfortunately there has been other evidence. And we see so far, an escalation of rhetoric and violence coming from the Russian leadership. What I can say is that the EU and its allies in NATO and beyond stand united in support of Ukraine. We have been supporting Ukraine politically, economically and with the provision of weapons and ammunition. We will continue to do so.
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And as we speak, the European Council will consider the possibility of a tenth package of sanctions. These sanctions are incredibly deep and comprehensive in their reach. The point of the sanctions is to affect the capacity of the Kremlin to continue its war of aggression and to isolate the Russian leadership responsible for the aggression. We see the sanctions are already having an effect in several dimensions. You see the effect on the capital markets. You see the difficulty faced by Russia in accessing technology. I think we will see these sanctions biting ever more in the course of the months to come. But to conclude, let me say we have a situation where an aggressor needs to withdraw its troops, stop the hostilities and respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a peaceful neighbour.
Q. In terms of the costs for Ukraine, could you describe the situation over the past year?
Konovalov: If you’re asking me regarding the price, it is unbelievable loss, not only for Ukraine, but for the whole civilised and peaceful world. Nobody can imagine how many people have died in the territory of Ukraine. Innocent people. First of all, kids, women, all civilians, then military personnel. That is unbelievable and nobody can imagine how many, it is countless. More than dozens of thousands we have lost. Innocent people, and it is unacceptable.
We are living in the 21st century, with the values of the 21st century. The Russian war in our country, what is happening right now, it is unprovoked, unexpected and terrible, which is unacceptable according to the [standards of] modern society.
Q. Despite the sanctions that you mentioned, we are hearing that Russia is again perhaps building up troops for a fresh offensive. Do you think the sanctions are adequate to cope with such a situation?
Astuto: What we see is the Russian leadership has been unable to achieve its objectives, be it in military terms or political terms. After one year, it is clear the Russian Army has suffered setbacks. They are continuing their offensive but we also see the Ukrainian armed forces pushing back. I think the resilience of the Ukrainian people has been a central factor in developments over the last year. From the Europe side and NATO, what we intend to do is to continue supporting Ukraine and isolating the Russian leadership. I think this is a strategy which has been bearing fruit and which will continue in the months to come.
Q. Have the G7 price cap on oil and EU restrictions on purchases of Russian energy had an impact?
Astuto: It has. The intention of the Kremlin was clearly to blackmail Europe, but the results have been the opposite, in the sense that Europe has been weaning itself off its dependency on oil and gas in a very short while by adopting a multifaceted strategy. We have looked at alternative sources of oil and gas, we have taken very effective measures in terms of energy efficiency, reducing energy consumption, on average by 15% and we have accelerated our drive towards renewables. In a word, the era of Russian fossil fuels In Europe Is over.
The price cap is something we have devised in order to help our partners, particularly our most vulnerable partners from the [Global] South of the world, to shield them from the hikes, from the instability of oil prices in particular, and I think it’s proving effective. What we see is that the spike in oil prices, which was experienced a few months ago, is now over. We see oil and gas trading at prices which are below the level before the war. So, I think the measures taken by the G7 and beyond, with the oil price cap, are having the intended practical effects, which were on one hand to avoid the instability of prices in the market, and on the other hand, to [prevent] Russia [from] accumulating undue profits that will be used for its aggression against Ukraine.
Q. There are reports that there is fatigue now in some European countries over the war. There is also dwindling support in America from the public. How do you look at such developments?
Astuto: But that’s not what I see in anecdotal terms, in terms of the people I talk to, and in political terms, if you look at the flurry of initiatives which have been taken in Europe and beyond in the US. My impression is actually that we stand firmly with Ukraine.
Q. Last year, the Indian prime minister told the Russian president at a meeting that today’s era is not of war. This was echoed in the joint communique at the last G20 Summit. What do you feel should be done now to take this forward?
Konovalov: Definitely, the words of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modiji are the leitmotif of 2023 and the Indian presidency of the G20. That is the right definition – one earth, one family and one future. We still count on India’s support and we see this G20 presidency as a window of opportunity for all peaceful nations.
India, in the framework of the G20, has quite a lot of events. We hope that during these events, especially the ministerial meetings, the topic of Ukraine will be on the table. Definitely it will be. But we would also like to indicate that the Ukrainian topic should be discussed with Ukraine. We kindly request and we count on India that Ukraine somehow will be taking part in the key events within the framework of G20.
Q. Would you be open to an Indian role in mediation, especially because of its relations with Russia?
Konovalov: Definitely. First of all, we would like to invite India to [join] the implementation of the peace formula announced by our President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This formula consists of 10 pillars and we proposed to the Indian site to choose where India may see itself, as a co-sponsor, a co-author or maybe participant and India’s role in the implementations of the peace formula will be very crucial. We can repeat this once again, that India is a leader of the Global South. In this case, the role of India, to provide us a platform and support and to stop this Russian war in our country, would definitely be very important.
Q. There have been suggestions from some quarters that this is a European war and it’s not really a problem for the Global South. There have been suggestions that Europe hasn’t done enough about developments in other parts of the world, such as Afghanistan. How would you look at that sort of criticism?
Astuto: What I can say is that from our perspective, what is happening today in Europe is of relevance for the whole international community. As we all believe in a rules-based system of international governance and we all believe that we need to uphold the values and principles of the UN Charter. We need to do that in Europe now and tomorrow elsewhere. If an aggression went unheeded, the risk of further aggressions taking place in Europe and beyond would definitely be higher. I think there is something at stake here which is of interest to the whole international community.
Q. Coming to the proposal for Ukraine’s membership of the EU, the Ukrainian side has a timeframe but other countries have called for a more realistic approach. This is clearly going to take some time. How do both of you look at this process?
Astuto: The trajectory is very clear. The destination is set. We are now working on a number of practical initiatives that can deliver. We were talking earlier about the connection of the Ukrainian electricity grid to the EU. That’s one very practical achievement already in place. Ukraine is part of the European family and we want to make these links and ties deeper. As we speak, the discussion on the accession is taking place in European institutions.
Q. In the face of the oil price cap and sanctions, there are countries such as China and India that have continued energy purchases from Russia. Do you see a contradiction in the stand taken by India?
Astuto: I think we understand the position of India, we understand its constraints but we also greatly value what the prime minister said about the fact that this is not the time for war. The active engagement of India for peace is extremely important. It’s a conversation we continue to have with India and we respect and value the contribution that India can offer.
Konovalov: This is a sovereign right of every country, to do whatever, according to the framework of international law. But definitely we understand the needs of Indian national energy security, we understand the long and maybe very friendly relationship with Russia and the strategic partnership. Definitely we can’t dictate to a sovereign country what to do, but we [hope] that India will increase the volume of any type of aid, which is necessary for our country to survive. And definitely we are expecting to see the active participation of the Indian side in the restoration of peace.
Q. How do you see the war playing out over the next few months? It does seem the fighting is not going to die down anytime soon.
Astuto: I think the answer I can give you is that the conflict could end now if Russia stopped its aggression and withdrew its troops and respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its peaceful neighbour.
