Snapping its two-day losing streak, the rupee recovered by nine paise against the US dollar on Wednesday, July 28, to settle at 74.38 ahead of the US Federal policy decision. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic unit opened at 74.44 against the dollar and registered an intra-day high of 74.31. It witnessed a low of 74.49. In an early trade session, the local unit inched four paise higher to 74.43 against the greenback. The rupee closed at 74.38, higher by nine paise over its last close.
According to forex traders, the local unit is trading in a narrow range this week ahead of the monthly expiry and the US Fed’s policy decision. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.07 per cent to 92.49.
What analysts say:
Mr Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex:
”Globally, the dollar consolidated near 92.45 levels as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting, while concerns about the spread of the contagious Delta variant continued to weigh on sentiment. If Fed acknowledges that the US economic recovery is gathering steam and tapering could be on cards to keep inflation in check, the dollar will rally towards 93.50-70 levels.
Meanwhile, on the domestic front, International Monetary Fund has cut India’s growth projection from 12.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent for fiscal 2021-22, as the impact of the second wave has slowed recovery efforts. However, the only ray of hope to support the rupee is the FII inflows on account of the upcoming 9 IPO’s for Rs 20,000 crs. Hereon, the rupee shall take cues from further movement in the dollar index over developments in policy meeting.”
Kshitij Purohit, Lead International & Commodities at CapitalVia Global Research Limited:
”Yesterday, USD/INR reversing the previous day’s losses. On Monday, the rupee (INR) fell to a three-week low before rebounding from 74.26. The recovery moves appear to be downplaying India’s recent good covid news.
Technically USD/INR July opened almost on a flat note and was moving in a marginally sideways to bullish trend since morning and closed in yesterday’s range itself.
Now the buyers have to close above 74.60 mark in order to trigger the bullish momentum, as the prices are consolidating in 74.60-74.35 zone for a few days now and we cannot get a clear estimate of the upcoming direction as prices are hovering around moving averages and the RSI is also moving in a sideways direction.”
Anindya Banerjee, DVP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities:
“The USDINR spot touched a low of 74.31 on the back of lumpy corporate and IPO related $ inflows, the lowest levels since early July. However, alleged intervention from the central bank pulled the pair near 74.38 by the close of day.
Tonight’s US FOMC meeting will be a key driver of volatility. A hawkish or dovish turn will determine the next volatility in USDINR. A broad range of 74.00 to 74.60 is expected over the near term.”
On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex ended 135.05 points or 0.26 per cent lower at 52,443.71, while the broader NSE Nifty slipped 37.05 points or 0.24 per cent to 15,709.40.
Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities:
“After selling pressure in the first half, good recovery was seen. Nifty managed to defend 15700 and close marginally above the same. Support is now seen at 15500 while resistance is placed at 16000/16100 levels. For the near term expect short covering above 15770 on the index. Metals and Realty continue to remain in momentum while banking provides value for the medium term.”
According to exchange data, the foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on July 27 as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,459.08 crore. Global oil benchmark Brent crude advanced 0.77 per cent to $ 75.05 per barrel in futures trade.