Erasing some of its initial gains, the rupee moved up five paise against the US dollar on Thursday, July 15, to settle at 74.54 (provisional), tracking a firm trend in domestic equities. At the interbank forex market, the domestic unit opened at 74.48 against the dollar and registered an intra-day high of 74.47. It witnessed a low of 74.55 during the session. In an early trade session, the local unit gained 12 paise to 74.47 against the greenback. On Wednesday, July 14, the domestic unit settled at 74.59 against the American currency.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.08 per cent to 92.33. According to forex traders, foreign fund outflows and firm crude oil prices could weigh on investor sentiment and cap the appreciation of the local unit.
What analysts say:
Mr Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex:
”The momentum in rupee is likely to squeeze down further as rising expectation of upcoming Fed tapering on rising US inflation was seen rejected by Fed Jerome Powell in his testimony as he reiterated that the current higher inflation will ease in coming months.
Domestically, equity markets are trading into the consolidation phase as both global and domestic cues are very much mixed. However, FII/FPIs seems booking their profits as they have sold almost INR 3670 crore worth of Indian stocks in July after whopping investments of more than Rs 17,000 in June.
Probably, easing domestic COVID situation and IPO spree could limit the outflow. Now the focus shift towards today’s release of India’s June trade balance. After easing COVID restrictions up to some extent in June, both business activity and demand for goods have picked up well. Overall, we might see a jump in both the import and exports figures.
Broadly, on account of higher oil import prices, the deficit is likely to remain elevated. On the fiscal front, this year also the deficit is likely to miss the target easily as the government is going the extra mile to support the economy. This could keep the rupee on its toes and limit the appreciating move beyond 74.00 levels over the medium term.”
Kshitij Purohit, Lead International & Commodities at CapitalVia Global Research Limited:
”The resurgent USD appears to be assisting USD/INR in gaining positive momentum. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States grew to 5.4 percent in June from five per cent in May, according to figures released earlier in the day.
This result exceeded the market’s anticipation of five per cent, giving the dollar a lift. The USD/INR continued to rise on after making small gains on Monday, and it is on course to conclude in the positive region near 74.60. Furthermore, rising US Treasury bond yields following the poor performance of the 30-year note auction allowed the dollar to continue to outperform its competitors.”
Anindya Banerjee, DVP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities:
“Another lackluster day of trading in USDINR as spot closed 4 paise lower by at 74.54 and July futures is trading 5 paise lower, as weaker US Dollar Index and FPI flows into the ongoing IPOs kept the USDINR capped under 74.60 on spot but relentless buying of $ from RBI kept the pair above 74.50. Tomorrow, we expect USDINR to come under selling pressure as last day of ZOMATO IPO may see lumpy inflows.
Domestic Equity Markets Today:
On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex ended 254.80 points or 0.48 per cent higher at 53,158.85, while the broader NSE Nifty climbed 70.25 points or 0.44 per cent to 15,924.20.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities:
“Both Nifty/Sensex logged fresh lifetime highs at 15952.35/53266.12 on strong buying support in technology, financials and real estate stocks. The extended upsurge helped key indices move past the trading range on the upward boundary at 15915/53129. The development is positive as this might push the market towards 16100/53600 levels. Despite the weekly expiry pressure, the market remained firm even after hitting new highs. Our strategy should be to buy on dips.”
According to exchange data, the foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on July 14 as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,303.95 crore. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures declined 0.58 per cent to $ 74.33 per barrel.