Covid Resurgence Could Derail Indian Economy: Oxford Economics

0
83


The Coronavirus resurgence in India has raised concerns that the economy’s recovery could be derailed, Oxford Economics’ latest report has said.

With the state governments reluctant to reintroduce strict lockdowns, the report by the thinktank feels that though the economic impact will be much less severe than the second quarter of the previous fiscal, the growth momentum of the current fiscal’s first quarter could be slower.

High frequency data point to a slowdown in growth momentum in the first quarter, which is already built into our forecasts, it says.

However at the same time, these indicators are yet to show a sharp deceleration in response to the rapid increase in Covid case counts.

In another telling observation, the report says that compared to the international experience, the vaccination rate is far below the level required to contain the virus itself.

Also, the second wave is likely to be more severe.

The thinktank observed that if the health situation worsens substantially and tighter restrictions are reimposed, then this would threaten their baseline forecast for the first half of the current year.

With the state governments reluctant to reintroduce strict lockdowns, the report by the thinktank feels that though the economic impact will be much less severe than the second quarter of the previous fiscal, the growth momentum of the current fiscal’s first quarter could be slower.

High frequency data point to a slowdown in growth momentum in the first quarter, which is already built into our forecasts, it says.

However at the same time, these indicators are yet to show a sharp deceleration in response to the rapid increase in Covid case counts.

In another telling observation, the report says that compared to the international experience, the vaccination rate is far below the level required to contain the virus itself.

Also, the second wave is likely to be more severe.

The thinktank observed that if the health situation worsens substantially and tighter restrictions are reimposed, then this would threaten their baseline forecast for the first half of the current year.

The Coronavirus resurgence in India has raised concerns that the economy’s recovery could be derailed, Oxford Economics’ latest report has said.

With the state governments reluctant to reintroduce strict lockdowns, the report by the thinktank feels that though the economic impact will be much less severe than the second quarter of the previous fiscal, the growth momentum of the current fiscal’s first quarter could be slower.

High frequency data point to a slowdown in growth momentum in the first quarter, which is already built into our forecasts, it says.

However at the same time, these indicators are yet to show a sharp deceleration in response to the rapid increase in Covid case counts.

In another telling observation, the report says that compared to the international experience, the vaccination rate is far below the level required to contain the virus itself. Also, the second wave is likely to be more severe.

The thinktank observed that if the health situation worsens substantially and tighter restrictions are reimposed, then this would threaten their baseline forecast for the first half of the current year.



Source link