The Bharatiya Janata Party is the biggest gainer from Sunday’s developments that saw Ajit Pawar and a raft of Nationalist Congress Party leaders join the Maharashtra government. In one move, the BJP has weakened the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), gain the upper hand over its ally, the Eknath Shinde-ed Shiv Sena (and also chief minister Shinde himself), and improved its prospects in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the state.
The similarities between Sunday’s events and last year’s, when the BJP managed to effect a split in the Sena are clear. Yet, there is one big difference. The split in the Sena did not really seem to weaken the MVA, and the BJP’s Mission 45, under which it targeted winning 45 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state appeared out of reach. But with questions being asked about the future of the Sharad Pawar-led remnant of the NCP, the MVA is now weaker (as the work-in-progress national opposition grouping-in-the-making). . A weaker MVA is expected to improve the BJP’s prospects in certain parts of Maharashtra .
In an interview to Hindustan Times on Thursday, deputy chief minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis admitted that their number of MPs in Maharashtra may decrease, as the Uddhav Thackeray faction still enjoyed a strength in the state, and added there could be drop in their seats but the number would not be dropped to 22 from 42.
A BJP leader who asked not to be named put numbers to this theory, and said the party could now make inroads into 11 Lok Sabha constituencies that were previously the NCP’s stronghold.. “These NCP bastions have a completely different voter base. Our only option was to create a dent in the party by poaching their leaders. This will help us enter districts in western Maharashtra, including Pune, Satara and others.”
And Ajit Pawar’s entry provides the perfect way for the BJP to offset Shinde. Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar are believed to enjoy a warm relationship. “We have managed to create an alternative to the Shinde faction by inducting some of Maharashtra’s stalwarts into the cabinet,” admitted the BJP leader cited above. Shinde and his party, this person added, did not create the impact that was expected and this was disclosed to both the CM and deputy CM last month by the BJP’s central leadership last month.” Keeping Shinde “in check” is foremost on the party’s agenda, the BJP leader said, referring to the controversial advertisement released by the Chief Minister a fortnight ago that created a rift between the two parties. The ads seemed to suggest that Shinde was everyone’s first choice of CM and played down the importance of the BJP and deputy CM Fadnavis.
State BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “The NCP MLAs have joined the government keeping full faith in the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This will help Maharashtra and the country to take another leap. We are happy that the two deputy chief ministers will work in the interest of the state.”
Another BJP leader however expressed apprehension over the two splits the BJP has effected in two main opposition parties in the state over the past year. “The voters may be disgruntled by these developments, although they may not completely go against the Modi government for want of powerful opposition,” this person added.
But he was quick to add that this factor too had been taken into account.
“We have been told by our central leaders that a weaker opposition proves more beneficial (to us) than any damage to our image from breaking the parties.”
