With some exit polls suggesting that no party would cross the majority mark in the Karnataka assembly elections, the Janata Dal (Secular) on Friday claimed to have been approached by both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress for a post-poll alliance to form the next government.
According to JD(S) functionaries, BJP and Congress leaders are trying to reach out to JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy, who is currently in Singapore, for a post-poll alliance if the situation of a hung assembly arises.
Both the national parties, however, expressed confidence of winning a majority and forming the government without any support.
Polling for the 224 assembly seats were held on Wednesday and the counting of votes is scheduled for Saturday.
Seven out of eight prominent exit polls have predicted that the Congress will finish ahead of the incumbent BJP. Four of these polls also forecast that the Opposition party may even cross the majority mark of 113 on its own, something it has done only once in the past two decades. Three others said that the Congress will emerge as the single-largest party but fall short of the majority mark.
One poll predicted that the BJP will surge ahead of the Congress and gain a simple majority of its own. Most exit polls predicted that the JD(S), which has traditionally played kingmaker and punched above its weight in a state that is known for throwing up fractured verdicts, will end up with a tally in the mid-20s.
“Kumaraswamy is relaxing with his friends in Singapore. Both the parties (Congress and BJP) are trying to reach out to him,” a JD(S) functionary said, seeking anonymity. Kumaraswamy left for Singapore on Wednesday night and is expected to return on Saturday.
JD(S) spokesperson Tanveer Ahmed also said “both the national parties are trying to reach out to them and that they would take a decision at an appropriate time”.
However, sensing controversy over Ahmed’s comments, Karnataka JD(S) president CM Ibrahim said the former was no longer a spokesperson of the party. “We have not decided on an alliance with any party… We will wait for tomorrow’s result,” he said.
According to the functionary quoted above, Kumaraswamy is in constant touch with party candidates and assured them that the party will play an important role in forming the government.
A second functionary, who also did not wish to be named, said it is easier for Kumaraswamy to negotiate freely with national parties from Singapore than in Karnataka, where his movement would be tracked.
Political analyst Chambi Puranik recalled how Kumaraswamy had made a similar trip to Singapore during the 2018 assembly elections and his move is a well thought out strategy.
“He is an expert in such optics. He knows that both the parties will come to him. It’s definitely a strategy of Kumaraswamy. He knows that even if there is a simple majority for one party, there is a risk. He will definitely take advantage of this and dictate terms,” Puranik said.
After voting for the 2018 assembly elections was held, Kumaraswamy had flown to Singapore, citing health reasons. He returned a day after the results were declared and held meetings with Congress leaders to form an alliance.
In 2018, the BJP won 104 seats, the Congress 78 and the JD(S) 37. The two opposition parties came together to form an unlikely coalition government but the administration collapsed in 2019 after a bunch of lawmakers resigned.
“If it comes down to both the parties, I think he would be open to both options. As long as he is the number one and gets the chief ministerial post, he would go with both the parties. Once they (JD-S) agree to form a coalition government, they will dictate terms also to ensure good portfolios,” Puranik said.
During the election campaign, both the BJP and Congress had claimed that they wouldn’t strike a post-poll alliance with the JD(S). Kumaraswamy had also asserted that a coalition government with either party was out of the question and exuded confidence of being a “king” instead of a “kingmaker”.
Kumaraswamy has served as chief minister twice – once during an alliance with the BJP in 2006 and another with the Congress in 2018.
Meanwhile, chief minister Basavaraj Bommai on Friday exuded confidence that the BJP would win with a clear majority and there was no need for talks with any party for a coalition government. “We will get a clear majority. We believe a comfortable victory will be achieved, and we will cross the limit of seats required for a majority,” he said.
“There is no question of an alliance before us. We will get the majority. Let the Congress leaders conduct as many meetings as they can, they have the right to do so. We are not bothered,” he added.
However, BJP MLA from Honnali constituency in Davanagere district, MP Renukacharya, said an alliance with the JD(S) cannot be ruled out in case of a hung assembly. “If such a situation emerges, an alliance might happen with the JD(S),” Renukacharya, who is close to former chief minister and veteran party leader B S Yediyurappa, said.
State Congress chief DK Shivakumar dismissed the exit polls and possibility of a hung assembly. “Exit polls have their own theory. We don’t go by those samples. My sample size is too high and in that, we will have a comfortable majority. I don’t know about JD(S), let them take their own call. I don’t have any backup plan, my only plan is that the Congress party will come to power,” he said.
Congress MLA Priyank Kharge also expressed confidence that there would be no hung assembly. “We are going to pass 120 seats. There is no question of a hung government, we are supremely confident that we will form the government on our own,” he said.
